Prague According to the election model of the Kantar CZ agency, the YES would win YES in September, but continues to lose. Compared to August, it lost three percentage points, the current gain of 24.5 percent is the worst result since the 2017 election. The STAN movement came in fourth, strengthening by three percentage points to 9.5 percent since August. Seven political groups have exceeded the five percent threshold required to enter the House. The election model was published by Czech Television
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The SPD movement lost one position compared to August, with the same gain of eight percent, it would end fifth in September. The other four parties move on the border of the entrance to the Chamber of Deputies. According to the model, the required five percent of votes would be exceeded by KDU-ČSL, which strengthened by two percentage points to six percent. TOP 09 also improved by half a percentage point to 5.5 percent of the vote.
The KSČM would not get into the lower house of parliament in September – its 4.5 percent support is the same as in the previous model. The coalition CSSD lost 1.5 percent, now it would be supported by four percent of respondents. The Tricolor remains below the threshold for entering the lower house of parliament, but it has strengthened by half a percentage point, supported by three percent of voters.
The statistical error of the election model in the current wave of measurements is in the range of +/- 1.1 for low-gain parties and up to 2.8 percentage points for high-gain parties. The survey took place from September 21 to October 9 and involved 1,200 respondents.
Electoral model in comparison with the result of the parliamentary elections in October 2017 (in pct):
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Source: Kantar CZ